Logo

Will a Recession Bring Down Home Prices in Sioux Falls, SD?

August 01, 2025

Author Amy Stockberger | Founder, Amy Stockberger Real Estate | Creator, Lifetime Home Support™ Academy | Partner, ProInsight – helping agents scale with Relational Tech™ | Ranked the #1 Real Estate Team in South Dakota since 2017 and #33 in the Nation by Real Trends

With talk of a possible recession back in the news, many people in Sioux Falls, SD are asking themselves: Is now still the right time to buy or sell a home? A recent survey by John Burns Research and Consulting and Keeping Current Matters shows that nearly 7 in 10 consumers are hitting pause on their plans due to economic uncertainty.

But here’s the twist — it’s not all fear that’s causing the delay. A good portion of buyers are actually feeling optimistic. They’re holding off because they believe a recession could create better buying conditions. Is that true for the Sioux Falls market? Let’s dig into what the data really shows.

What a Recession Could Mean for Sioux Falls, SD

Locally, Sioux Falls, SD has held strong in the real estate market. Neighborhoods like Brandon, Prairie Hills, and Jefferson Heights continue to show steady demand. Even as inventory slowly increases, it’s still not enough to shift the market heavily in buyers’ favor.

Many local buyers hoping for a steep drop in prices might be waiting for a scenario that likely won’t play out. Why? Because Sioux Falls is still grappling with a long-term inventory shortage — and that keeps pricing relatively stable, even during national slowdowns.

What You Should Know Before Waiting on the Market

Tip 1: Mortgage Rates Often Fall in a Recession

Historically, mortgage rates tend to decline when the economy contracts. In fact, during each of the last six U.S. recessions, interest rates dropped. That could mean more affordable monthly payments for Sioux Falls buyers — especially first-timers or those with limited down payments.

Tip 2: Home Prices Rarely Take a Major Hit

Despite what many assume, home values didn’t crash in most recessions. Data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) reveals that prices rose in four out of the past six recessions. The 2008 housing crisis was the exception, not the norm.

Even today, home prices across Sioux Falls, SD are either holding steady or seeing modest increases. So banking on a significant drop? That’s probably wishful thinking.

Tip 3: Timing the Market Could Backfire

A common buyer mindset is hoping for the double win: lower rates and lower prices. But real estate history tells us that usually, you only get one. As Robert Frick from Navy Federal Credit Union put it:

“Hopes that an economic slowdown will depress housing prices are wishful thinking at this point.”

How Amy Stockberger Real Estate Can Guide You

At Amy Stockberger Real Estate, we’re more than just your home search partner — we’re your guide through the entire financing and buying process.

With our Lifetime Home Support™ model, you get:

Tools like our VIP Club moving resources and relocation guides to simplify every step

Let’s Make Your Move Work for You

If you’ve been waiting for the “perfect” time to buy or sell in Sioux Falls, SD — the truth is, that time might already be here. Let’s build a smart, personalized plan that helps you make the most of current market conditions and your long-term goals.

We’re here for you — before, during, and long after the sale.

💬 Still have questions about buying or selling in Sioux Falls, SD?

Get answers anytime with our Sioux Falls, SD Real Estate Help Center AI Assistant

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *